The Order Backlog Index Q1 2026: IAI, Elbit, Rafael vs. Lockheed, RTX, Rheinmetall
Q1 2026 marks the post-October 7 backlog peak for Israeli primes. Elbit above $22B, IAI above $20B, Rafael mid-teens. Set against Lockheed ($176B), RTX ($220B+), Rheinmetall (€55B+) — the absolute scale gap and the narrowing velocity gap.
Q1 2026 marked the post-October 7 backlog peak for the Israeli defense industrial base. Per Elbit Systems' public disclosures (NASDAQ: ESLT; TASE: ESLT), Israel Aerospace Industries' state-owned financial reporting, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems' annual disclosures, and trade-press coverage in Globes, Calcalist, Defense News, and Reuters, the three Israeli primes carry a combined order backlog at multi-decade highs entering 2026 — a structural inflection driven by the post-October 7 IDF replenishment cycle, accelerated European procurement, and sustained Indian and Gulf demand. Set against the Western reference primes — Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Rheinmetall — the absolute scale gap remains substantial, but the growth-rate gap has narrowed to its tightest level in the modern era.
The Israeli backlog snapshot
Three Israeli operators anchor the national defense industrial base: Elbit Systems (publicly traded), Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) (state-owned, TASE-listed bond instrument), and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems (state-owned). All three reported record or near-record order backlogs entering 2026.
Elbit Systems' publicly disclosed backlog crossed $22 billion in 2024 and continued expanding through 2025, per quarterly SEC filings. The backlog composition shifted materially toward European customers following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and accelerated through 2024–2025, with German, UK, Dutch, Romanian, and Greek procurements anchoring multi-year delivery schedules.
IAI's 2024 reporting placed the consolidated group order backlog above $20 billion, per state-owned financial disclosures. ELTA Systems, the IAI radar and electronic-warfare subsidiary, separately reported a $6.9 billion backlog at end-2024, of which approximately 75% reflects export orders. Boaz Levy, IAI's President and CEO, has overseen the post-October 7 expansion alongside the Arrow air-defense agreement with Germany — a single $3.6 billion deal signed September 2023 that anchored the German contribution to the backlog.
Rafael's 2024 revenue of $4.85 billion implies a multi-year backlog at conservative book-to-bill assumptions; the company's state-owned status limits public backlog disclosure, but trade-press estimates and Israeli Ministry of Defense reporting place Rafael's 2025 backlog in the mid-teens of billions of dollars. The Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Trophy active-protection franchises anchor the order book.
The Western reference primes
Set against the Israeli triad, the Western prime backlogs operate at a different absolute scale. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) entered 2026 with a consolidated backlog of approximately $176 billion per 2025 SEC filings. RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) reported a backlog above $220 billion across its Pratt & Whitney, Collins Aerospace, and Raytheon segments. Rheinmetall AG (FWB: RHM), the German prime that has emerged as Europe's structural beneficiary of the post-Ukraine rearmament cycle, reported a backlog above €55 billion entering 2025, more than four times its pre-2022 level.
Per the SIPRI 2024 defense-contractor index, Lockheed Martin's defense revenue of $64.65 billion and RTX's $43.6 billion exceed the combined annual defense revenue of all three Israeli primes. The absolute scale of US prime backlogs reflects the depth of US Department of Defense procurement, the F-35 program contribution at Lockheed, and the missile and air-defense exposure at RTX.
The growth-rate read
The structurally interesting figure is not absolute backlog — it is backlog velocity. Israeli prime backlogs grew at materially faster rates than the US Western reference primes between 2022 and 2025.
Per Elbit's annual reports, the company's backlog grew approximately 40% between 2022 and 2025, materially outpacing Lockheed Martin and RTX in the same period. Rheinmetall, the Western prime with the closest growth profile to Israeli primes, grew its backlog by an even higher multiple — but from a 2022 base substantially below the Israeli operators.
The composite read: post-October 7 IDF replenishment and accelerated European procurement have placed Israeli primes on a growth trajectory that, while not closing the absolute scale gap with US primes, has compressed the velocity gap to its tightest level in recent decades.
Composition differences
Israeli prime backlogs carry meaningfully different composition than Western reference primes. The Israeli operators are concentrated in air and missile defense (Arrow, David's Sling, Iron Dome, SkySonic), counter-UAS systems, electronic warfare (ELTA, Elbit's EW portfolios), active protection (Trophy), loitering munitions (Harpy, Harop, Mini Harpy), and tactical UAVs (Hermes, Heron). The US primes are concentrated in fifth-generation manned aviation (Lockheed's F-35), strategic systems (RTX's missile defense at scale), and large-platform legacy programs.
This composition difference matters institutionally. Backlog categories where Israeli primes hold structural advantage — air defense, counter-UAS, electronic warfare, active protection — are precisely the categories where post-October 7 conflict experience has accelerated global procurement demand. The Israeli backlog composition is, in 2026, a more direct beneficiary of current conflict dynamics than the legacy-platform composition of US primes.
The structural read
The Q1 2026 backlog snapshot positions the Israeli defense industrial base at a structural inflection. Two specific institutional consequences follow.
First, the IAI and Rafael partial-IPO discussions — both companies have been the subject of state-ownership review and potential public-market listing reporting through 2025–2026, per Globes and Calcalist coverage. A 25–30% partial flotation of IAI at a reported ~$20 billion valuation would represent the largest Israeli defense IPO in history. Rafael has been part of parallel discussions at materially smaller scale. Backlog at multi-decade highs strengthens the institutional case for either transaction.
Second, the Elbit growth trajectory — continuing to absorb European demand at scale — positions the company as the structural anchor of the Israeli defense industrial base for the remainder of the decade. The composition of the backlog has shifted from a US-Israel-India triangle toward a broader US-Israel-India-Europe configuration. That broader customer base is the more durable structural feature than the absolute backlog dollar figure.
Source data: Elbit Systems SEC and TASE filings and annual reports; Israel Aerospace Industries state-owned financial disclosures and ELTA Systems reporting; Rafael Advanced Defense Systems annual disclosures; Lockheed Martin and RTX SEC filings; Rheinmetall AG financial reports; SIPRI 2024 defense-contractor index; coverage in Globes, Calcalist, Defense News, Reuters, Israel Defense, and Bloomberg. IAI/Rafael partial-IPO reporting per Globes and Calcalist 2025–2026 coverage. Data current as of Q1 2026.
