Morocco has spent $1.5 billion. The UAE is building the pipeline. Bahrain is waiting. This is the Accords defense map — not as shipping records, but as open negotiations and active evaluations across three Israeli primes through 2028.
Morocco has spent $1.5 billion. The UAE is building the pipeline. Bahrain is waiting. This is the Accords defense map — not as shipping records, but as open negotiations, pending selections, and active evaluations across three Israeli primes (IAI, Elbit, Rafael) in three countries through 2028. The delivery story is over. The pipeline story is just starting.
The commentary splits Morocco from the broader Accords, treating it as a separate corridor. It is. But the infrastructure Morocco built — manufacturing, technology transfer, local production language — is the template being piloted before expanding to the UAE and Bahrain. This is what success looks like, and what's coming next looks like more of it.
Here is what is confirmed, what is selected, what is under negotiation, and what is under evaluation — across all three countries, all three primes, through 2028.
The Pipeline Framework
Status definitions:
Confirmed/Delivered — Contract signed, payments flowing, hardware in-country
Selected — Competitive process won, contract value known or estimated, delivery timeline public
Under Negotiation — Formal talks ongoing, contract not yet signed, local-production language possible
Under Evaluation — Formal evaluation ongoing, outcome not determined, timeline open
MOROCCO — $1.5B TOTAL COMMITTED + PIPELINE
The largest single-country Accords defense spend. The only country with working Israeli manufacturing. The template for what follows.
Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI)
Confirmed/Delivered:
Barak MX air-defense system — contract February 2022, $500M–$1B range, first shipments August 2023, integrated into Moroccan air defense architecture. Modular, mission-configurable, engages missile and aircraft threats. Full IAI-Morocco profile.
ELM-2084 multi-mission radars — 20 radars integrated into F-5E fighter jets. Modernizes legacy platform.
Harop loitering munition — ~$120M procurement range (with Harpy). 1,000-km range, 23kg warhead, offensive air-defense integration against Iskander-E.
Harpy anti-radiation loitering munition — legacy platform, operational in Morocco, radar-killer capability.
Selected:
Ofek 13 reconnaissance satellite — selected 2024 over Airbus/Thales bids. First Israeli spy satellite exported to Morocco. Strategic intelligence capability over Western Sahara and Algerian border. Contract value undisclosed but 9-figure range.
Evaluation/Development:
Barak MX Phase 2 — extended-range or naval-launched variant under consideration
Additional Ofek variants — Ofek 16 (optical), Ofek 19 (extended-endurance) candidates for repeat procurement
Manufacturing/Technology Transfer:
Benslimane SpyX facility — inaugurated November 15, 2025. BlueBird Aero Systems (50% IAI-owned) produces loitering munitions in Morocco under full technology transfer. First Israeli defense factory outside Israel. Benslimane deep-dive.
International University of Rabat MoU — May 2023, aviation and AI center of excellence. Human-capital pipeline for defense manufacturing.
WanderB and ThunderB VTOL ISR drones — already operational in Moroccan service, potential production line candidate at Benslimane Phase 2
IAI-Morocco total disclosed: $1.2B+. Pipeline adds estimated $400M–$600M (Phase 2, satellite variants).
Elbit Systems
Confirmed/Delivered:
ATMOS 2000 self-propelled howitzer — 36 units, signed February 2025, $200M+ contract. Replaced failed French CAESAR delivery. 155mm caliber, autonomous fire control, tactical fire support.
Hermes 900 tactical UAV — operational in Royal Moroccan Armed Forces, undisclosed value, multi-hour endurance ISR platform
Skylock counter-drone system — operational, undisclosed value
Selected:
PULS multiple-launch rocket system — $150M contract, 2023, delivery by 2026. PREDATOR HAWK variant, 300km range, 120kg warhead.
Alinet electronic warfare and SIGINT — $70M contract, June 2022, ground-based EMS/ECM/C2, two-and-a-half-year execution window.
Wheeled Armored Platform turrets — 105mm and 120mm variants under competitive evaluation as of May 2025
Manufacturing/Technology Transfer:
Casablanca production sites — two facilities announced June 2023, one confirmed in Casablanca region. Expected to support ATMOS, PULS, and turret production.
Elbit-Morocco total disclosed: $420M+. Manufacturing adds estimated $150M–$300M (Casablanca Phase 1).
Rafael Advanced Defense Systems
Confirmed/Delivered:
Spike ATGM family — multiple variants (LR2, MR, SR), procured under Morocco Ministry of National Defense contracts, value undisclosed. Fire-and-forget anti-tank capability, integrated with Moroccan armor and dismounted infantry doctrine.
Spyder short-range air defense — selected March 2023, contract value undisclosed (estimated $200M–$500M range). Python-5 and Derby interceptors, 360-degree mobile air-defense, complements Barak MX medium-range layer.
Under Evaluation:
Sky Sonic hypersonic interceptor — formally under evaluation, designed to counter future Algerian hypersonic threats, next-generation air-defense architecture candidate
Sky Spear offensive derivative — reportedly under evaluation, believed to be surface-to-surface precision-strike platform, signals potential doctrinal shift toward offensive capability
Under Negotiation:
Delilah short-range cruise missile — formal negotiations since July 2023, 100+ missile procurement with local-content language, estimated $300M–$500M value. Rafael-Morocco deep-dive. If deal closes, becomes Rafael's largest Morocco contract and Morocco's first cruise-missile capability.
Rafael-Morocco total disclosed: $300M–$700M (Spike + Spyder base). Pipeline adds estimated $300M–$500M (Delilah + evaluation systems).
MOROCCO TOTAL: $1.92B confirmed + $850M–$1.4B pipeline = $2.77B–$3.32B through 2028.
THE UNITED EMIRATES — THE OPAQUE PIPELINE
The Accords flagship for civil-tech and agritech. The defense picture is deliberately undercovered. What is known:
UAE TOTAL DISCLOSED: Undisclosed, estimated $300M–$800M. Manufacturing footprint: None publicly announced. Strategic frame: Deliberate opacity by design.
Why the difference? UAE defense procurement is routed through sovereign-capital and defense-ministry back channels, not public tender. CEPA trade figures obscure pure defense flows. Unlike Morocco (which needs visible force modernization against Algeria), UAE runs defense as a discretionary capital deployment with lower disclosure requirements.
BAHRAIN — THE SMALL PLAYER, LARGE AMBITIONS
The Accords' smallest economy. The defense appetite is selective and high-end.
BAHRAIN TOTAL DISCLOSED: Estimated $150M–$400M. Manufacturing footprint: None publicly announced. Strategic frame: Selective high-tech acquisitions, no domestic industrial ambitions disclosed.
The Accords Defense Summary
| Country | Disclosed Spend | Manufacturing | Strategic Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | $1.5B | Benslimane + Casablanca | Force modernization vs. Algeria |
| UAE | $300M–$800M | None announced | Discretionary capital deployment |
| Bahrain | $150M–$400M | None announced | Selective high-tech insertion |
WHAT'S COMING NEXT — 24 MONTHS
High Probability (75%+):
Rafael Delilah closure — Morocco. 24-month negotiation should reach contract signature 2026-H2 or 2027-Q1. Moves Rafael from $300M to $700M+ on Morocco basis.
Elbit Casablanca Phase 1 operational — ATMOS and PULS production capability online. Morocco becomes production hub for regional distribution.
Additional Ofek variant — Ofek 16 or Ofek 19 evaluation begins, repeat procurement likely 2027-2028
BlueBird/IAI Benslimane expansion — WanderB/ThunderB production line opened, broader UAV manufacturing announced
Medium Probability (50%–75%):
Barak MX Phase 2 — extended-range variant procurement, adds $300M–$500M to IAI book
Elbit turret platform closure — Wheeled Armored Platform evaluation concludes, contract signed for domestic production
Sky Sonic evaluation conclusion — Rafael hypersonic interceptor moves from evaluation to procurement or evaluation closure
UAE manufacturing announcement — Dual of Morocco model, but smaller scale
The Pipeline Inflection Point
The Accords defense trade flipped from export-only (2021–2023) to manufacturing-inclusive (2024+). Morocco was the pilot. The template worked. Two inflection points define it:
First: Benslimane opened. An Israeli company with Israeli IP produces weapons in Morocco, runs by Moroccan engineers, potentially exports to third countries. That precedent is now bindable to other primes and other countries.
Second: Delilah negotiation language includes local production. When it closes, it becomes the second Israeli defense contract with explicit manufacturing language, proving the model scales across different weapon systems.
The Accords are no longer a trade corridor. They are an industrial network. That transformation is the real story. The pipeline reflects it.